Better NWS seasonal to subseasonal sea ice forecasts for rural Alaska 

In coastal Arctic Alaska people rely on sea ice as a platform for hunting, fishing and travel. Yet reliable forecasts of sea ice conditions and associated weather are not always readily available. ACCAP was asked by the National Weather Service to gather feedback from communities to guide future delivery of NWS seasonal to subseasonal sea ice information to rural Alaskans. 

In autumn 2023, ACCAP, the NWS and our partners at the Alaska Arctic Observatory and Knowledge Hub interviewed Indigenous Elders, hunters, borough workers, search and rescue staff and community researchers in Utqiaġvik and Kotzebue. People were asked questions like: What sea ice features and weather conditions do communities monitor? Do they use NWS products and services? How do they want to receive NWS information? 

One interviewee from Kotzebue said, “If I could have one thing on a day, if somebody could give me one useful piece of information for today and for tomorrow and for the next day, it’s wind… Because that controls everything. That controls how we make decisions…There’s nothing more important than wind for figuring out whether you leave town or not.” 

This focus on wind emerged throughout the interviews along with other feedback such as communities caring about current sea ice conditions and those 10 days out. Taking into consideration where there is predictability and what information is feasible to share via NWS products, ACCAP provided NWS with guidance on potential wind forecasts. NWS is exploring how to provide that information and they have already developed test products for ACCAP to review. The team is using an iterative process to share draft guidance and potential products back with the communities. 

Beyond these outcomes, the effort is exploring ways to make the delivery of NWS information more accessible to Alaska Native Peoples. The interviews revealed things like communities value holistic perspectives that incorporate both land and water; they want to receive information on the platforms they already use, like local radio and community Facebook pages; including local place names and Iñupiaq terminology reduces confusion; and much more. 

Funding: NOAA Climate Program Office via the Weather Program Office of OAR; ACCAP core grant; AAOKH