VAWS: Future changes in Alaska snow conditions from statistically downscaled climate projections

Speaker: Jeremy Littell
Research Ecologist / Lead Scientist
Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center
USGS

Changes in the cryosphere represent one of the major climate impacts pathways in Alaska. Until recently, projections of future snowpack responses to climate change were geographically coarse scale and poorly tailored to the needs of decision makers and stakeholders. In this presentation, I describe snowpack projections from statistically downscaled precipitation and snow day fraction developed for Alaska. I focus on snowfall water equivalent and a hydrologically relevant indicator of seasonal streamflow. I also present some sub-regional examples developed for specific stakeholder needs in Alaska.

Links shared during presentation

• Statistical downscaled projects of snow/rain partitioning for Alaska
• Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Chugach National Forest and the Kenai Peninsula
• Historical and Projected Decadal Average Monthly Snowfall Equivalent and the Ratio of Snowfall Equivalent to Precipitation 771m CMIP5/AR5/CRU TS3.1
• Collection: Historical and Projected Estimates of Snow Fraction and and the Amount of Precipitation that Likely Falls as Snow Across Alaska
• Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios