VAWS: Subjective Evaluation of Sea Ice Guidance at Operational Ice Centers

Speaker: Eugene Petrescu, National Weather Service

Sea ice models have shown significant improvements over the past decade as targeted research to better understand physical processes related to sea ice evolution were incorporated into the models.   This has been driven by the rapid changes in sea ice and the impacts on communities and transportation activities in the Arctic. This is also increasing the need for expanded and improved sea ice forecasting capabilities from the US National Ice Center (USNIC) and the Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP). Historically due to lack of operational sea ice guidance on both short and long time scales, sea ice forecasts were a rather manual process based largely upon analogs. With new operational models and improving ice guidance, the ice centers wanted to see how this information could be leveraged to improve sea ice forecasts and potentially expand sea ice services in the future. A Sea Ice Guidance Evaluation Project led by the Arctic Testbed and Proving Ground was initiated to help answer some of these questions and to facilitate feedback between the ice centers and the sea ice modeling community to further improve the guidance.  An overview of the project will be presented.

The Virtual Alaska Weather Symposium (VAWS) is a collaboration between ACCAP, the Geographic Information Network of Alaska, and the NOAA National Weather Service. We present cutting-edge technologies in satellite remote sensing, forecasting, and modeling to a statewide audience through this webinar series.

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