VAWS: Predicting and Monitoring Heavy Precipitation in Complex Terrain

Speakers:
Carl Dierking, Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) University of Alaska (UAF)
Aaron Jacobs, National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office, Juneau Alaska
Kyle Van Peursem, Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, NWS (non-presenting author)

The vast and complex terrain of Alaska can make it difficult to forecast and assess the severity of heavy precipitation events in remote communities, especially in areas where traditional observation sensors, such as radar and ASOS, are not available. This presentation will show deterministic and ensemble model guidance for 1 to 6 day projections along with satellite data that can help to anticipate the potential for heavy precipitation. We will also show satellite products and other real-time situational awareness tools that can be used to monitor and quantify areas of excessive precipitation during an event.

Links shared during presentation

• Center for Western Water Weather & Extremes (CW3E) Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Atmospheric River (AR) Activity Outlook (1 to 3 weeks)
• Ensemble forecast products for heavy rain prediction (1-7 days out)
  • CW3E IVT ensemble probability plots
  • Ensemble Situational Awareness Table (ESAT) NAEFS / ECMWF(NWS only)
  • ECMWF Extreme Forecast Table
  • GEFS QPF plumes and GEFS/GFS IVT comparison
• Deterministic forecast products for heavy rain prediction (1-7 days out)
  • AR detection tools from CW3E
  • GFS/NAM/ECMWF IVT & IWV, GFS/NAM/ECMWF IVT cross sections / meteograms
  • NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) Automated Atmospheric River Detection (ARDT-IVT) for Forecast Evaluation from the GFS
  • Extreme Precipitation Forecast Table (EPFT) web version
  • RFC ARI vs QPF graphic