Setting the stage for a future avalanche warning system 

Avalanches are Alaska’s deadliest natural hazard. They affect about 30 percent of the state and regularly damage or destroy infrastructure and block transportation corridors. Despite the danger, Alaska lacks an avalanche warning system. ACCAP Deputy Director Nathan Kettle is coordinating two projects that lay the groundwork for a future warning program. The efforts are in partnership with the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Geological and Geophysical Surveys (DGGS). 

IARC’s Tom Ballinger is leading the first project and looking for a relationship between atmospheric rivers and avalanches. He’s exploring the connection by using a compiled set of atmospheric river events and a database Kettle built of historic avalanches in Alaska. This work sets the stage for predicting avalanches from atmospheric rivers. 

A second project with IARC’s Rick Lader is testing a method called climate analogs to determine its usefulness forecasting on the two-week timescale. The approach was developed by ACCAP alumni Brian Brettschneider to forecast seasonal sea ice. It leans on knowledge of past atmospheric events to create a probability that current conditions will evolve in a similar manner. If we suspect that atmospheric conditions are ripe to trigger an avalanche, the analog forecasting tool can produce a list of past avalanches with similar conditions. This knowledge can improve on-the-ground decision making. 

Once these projects are complete, ACCAP will work with the DGGS’ Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Program to assess whether the predictions are usable to transportation planners and avalanche forecast centers. “I am excited about advancing avalanche prediction through [this] work,” said Gabriel Wolken, CCHP manager, in a letter of support for the project. “Their combined use of analog forecast techniques and state-of- the-art weather and climate prediction models should enable us to optimize the use of present atmospheric science capabilities in applications to avalanche and landslide prediction.”

Funding: ACCAP core grant; Experimental Arctic Prediction Initiative